Three to watch, one to avoid as NASCAR heads to Talladega

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Talladega Superspeedway in Alabama for Sunday's GEICO 500, a race that could shake up the playoff picture if a surprise winner stuns the field. 

Talladega is the hardest track to predict on the NASCAR schedule, but that doesn't mean we won't try. 

Here are three drivers to watch in the race — a favorite, a contender and an underdog — and one driver to avoid betting on or putting in your fantasy lineup. 

Favorite: Ryan Blaney (+1000, per DraftKings as of Friday)

The favorites for Sunday's race are all at least +1000 to win, a testament to the wild and unpredictable nature of NASCAR's most terrifying racetrack. 

Blaney is as good a bet as any driver, though, as the 2023 Cup Series champion has won three races at Talladega Superspeedway, including the most recent one last fall.

All three of Blaney's wins at Talladega have come by mere inches, but at Talladega, that's not a bad margin of victory. With a winning pedigree at the Alabama track, Blaney should be in the mix all afternoon. 

Contender: Brad Keselowski (+1000)

Keselowski hasn't won a Cup Series race since April 2021, but his last win came at Talladega, a track the 2012 champion has won at six times.

Whether it be in the spring with a hungry pack chasing him or in a playoff race with massive championship implications, Bad Brad has always had a keen sense of knowing when to make the right move at the right time at Talladega. That's an invaluable trait on superspeedways. 

If Keselowski can keep his car in one piece Sunday — an accomplishment in itself at Talladega — expect him to be in the top five when the white flag flies.  

Dark horse: Todd Gilliland (+4500)

It may seem crazy, but Gilliland has led the most laps (74) of any driver on superspeedways this season, including 58 of 260 earlier in the season at Atlanta. 

Gilliland has the support of Ford, which, despite its well-documented struggles this season, seems to be the fastest manufacturer on superspeedways. Gilliland has an experienced teammate in Michael McDowell to push him, so he may not be the long shot you think he is. 

If you're rooting for a Cinderella story, don't look past Gilliland and Front Row Motorsports — after all, it was at Talladega in 2013 when it pulled off one of the greatest upsets in NASCAR history, finishing 1-2 with drivers David Ragan and Todd's father, David Gilliland. 

Avoid: Kyle Larson (+1800)

Superspeedways are the only tracks where Larson and the No. 5 team can be considered underdogs.

From his first Daytona 500 start in 2014 to the most recent superspeedway race at Atlanta, Larson has always been snakebit on drafting tracks. An engine failure less than 15 laps in took him out in spring 2021 at Talladega, and he was turned in the tri-oval while going for the win in 2022.

At Talladega in 2023, Larson was nailed by Ryan Preece's car in a late-race crash, the impact of which bent the roll cage of Larson's No. 5 car inward. If Larson is in the mix late, he'll have a shot, but surviving the first 490 miles will be a challenge for NASCAR's most talented driver.